Arsenal on Verge of Historic Premier League Title as City and Liverpool Drop Points

The Premier League title race of 2025/26 has been blown wide open — and it is Arsenal who stand on the brink of ending a 22-year wait for top-flight glory. Mikel Arteta’s side sit five points clear of Manchester City and seven ahead of Liverpool with twelve games remaining, and the mood at the Emirates has never been more electric.

A brilliant 3-1 victory over Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, sealed by a Bukayo Saka brace and a composed Martin Odegaard finish, extended Arsenal’s unbeaten run to eleven league matches. More impressively, they have conceded just four goals in that stretch — a defensive record that would be remarkable in any era of English football.

Arteta’s Blueprint Working to Perfection

When Mikel Arteta arrived at Arsenal in December 2019, he inherited a club in disarray. Five and a half years on, the Spanish coach has transformed the Gunners into one of the most cohesive, well-structured sides in Europe. His fingerprints are all over this team — the relentless pressing, the positional discipline, the collective work rate that has made Arsenal so difficult to beat.

The recruitment has been equally astute. Viktor Gyokeres, signed from Sporting CP in the summer for £68 million, has proven the perfect focal point. His combination of physicality, movement, and clinical finishing has added a dimension Arsenal previously lacked. In 26 appearances, the Sweden international has scored 19 goals and provided 8 assists — numbers that silence any lingering doubts about his fee.

“We always believed this was possible,” Arteta said in the post-match press conference. “We have worked so hard for this moment. But the job is not done — not even close.”

City’s Achilles Heel Exposed

Manchester City’s title defence has unravelled in troubling fashion. Pep Guardiola’s side have been hamstrung by an injury crisis of historic proportions, with Erling Haaland, Rodri, and Kevin De Bruyne all missing significant chunks of the season. Without Haaland in particular — who has started just 18 of 26 league games — City’s goal threat has dried up considerably.

The damning statistic: City have scored 26 goals with Haaland in the side, and just 14 without him. For a squad of their financial firepower and individual talent, that dependency speaks to a structural issue that Guardiola must address in the summer transfer window.

A costly 1-1 draw at Brentford — City’s third draw in five games — left Guardiola visibly frustrated. “We are not where we want to be in the table,” he conceded. “We must win our games. Simple as that.”

Liverpool’s Transition Pains

Liverpool, rebuilding under Arne Slot after the Jurgen Klopp era, have been the most improved side in the division over the second half of the season — but they have left themselves too much to do. Seven points off the pace, the Dutch manager’s side would need Arsenal to collapse completely to have any realistic hope of winning the title.

Slot has been impressive in his debut Premier League campaign, implementing a recognisable brand of high-intensity football while gradually adding his own tactical nuances. Mohamed Salah continues to deliver, netting 18 league goals, but the goals-against column remains a concern: Liverpool have conceded more than either Arsenal or City.

What Must Happen for Arsenal to Win the Title

The mathematics are in Arsenal’s favour. With 12 games left and a five-point lead, they can afford to lose one fixture and draw two others while City win every remaining game, and still win the title. Historically, leads of five or more points with twelve games remaining have been converted in over 90% of cases in the Premier League era.

The schedule is manageable but not without danger. A trip to Anfield in four weeks and the home fixture against Manchester City in mid-April represent the two most significant tests. If Arsenal can take four points from those six, the title will almost certainly be heading to North London.

For the first time in over two decades, Arsenal fans dare to believe. And after everything this generation of players and supporters has been through, it would be a moment to savour like few others in the club’s distinguished history.